Joke Guesstimate.

• 4 January 2017
• 0 comments

According to what have in the past proved reliable sources the London FCO are of the opinion that Malaysian Prime Minister, and global criminal, Najib Razak cannot lose a general election if he calls one sometime this year.

One would have thought that after a recent past in which the Labour party were “bound to win” the last general election and that, more recently, that Remain would easily win the Brexit referendum pundits would have learned more caution.

Another lesson to be learned is that the chances of getting a prediction right depend on how well informed one is. That is attested to by the Tory election win and the Brexit vote. So on what exactly are the FCO basing their opinion that Najib is bound to win any election he calls this year?

Past records will clearly show that he barely won the 2013 election and that only by gerrymandering and bribery on an heroic scale and that, even then, he did not win a majority of votes cast. And all that took place BEFORE the 1MDB scandal and his other massive thefts of public funds became known.

Further in 2013 he had the solid backing of the majority Malay vote which was then unaware of his huge criminal activity. Then there was only one serious Malay party, UMNO, which he controlled and which had obediently voted its nominees into power since Independence. Now there is a significant Malay opposition party and it needs only a quite small measure of support to oust UMNO candidates and so remove Najib’s majority.

So to predict that Najib will easily win any 2017 election is not merely wrongheaded it is stupid. Furthermore to come out so blatantly on one side over the other makes no friends in the other camp. At a time when Najib is about to be criminally indicted in the US, along with his co-criminals it is stupid.

Presumably the influence of major British business interests in Malaysia is a factor behind this prognostication. Have those interests considered what might be the reaction of an Opposition government after any such election?